nasaroc. I have no intention of accepting that bet with those stacked terms. I told you that I would expect prices to be down about 50% from peak in about late 2010 or 2011. But I cannot know, (as you are perfectly well aware) precisely how much and by precisely when. Under the terms of your bet Prices could be down 45% and you would win. Or they could be down 40% after double digit inflation for 2 years and you would still win. You would even still win if prices drop 60% from peak but not until 2012. Even if I do win, I win on the last percentile and you win on the other 99 percent.

Now ?100 really is not a lot of money to me, so I?m happy to humor you to an extent. If you want to bet ?100 that average house prices in the Greater London will be lower in 20 months than today. And today according to the BBC the average price is ?344,521.

I sense that your zeal is somewhat more visceral than logical, and perhaps you have some sort of vested interest. It is perhaps in your interest for your peace of mind for me to be seen to be proved wrong. So I have no interest in getting into a back and forth with you. Your position seems to me to be, and do correct me if I?m wrong, that you believe house price will float around seeing some modest gains. Such as the ones you have already quoted at me.

If this is the case than you should be happy. Indeed I would be happy to spilt the difference with you . If indeed we are discussing the likelihood for a further 25% fall on top of what we have already had why not agree the mid-point of 12.5% down and go either way. That gives an average house price in London as quoted on the following website: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in...gion10.stm
Of ?301,455 and above you win, or ?301,454 and below I win. That gives us both ?43,067 or 12.5% of the remaining 25% equity. It?s the halfway position and I hope you will agree, perfectly reasonable.

If you find the idea of a further forty three thousand pounds drop ludicrous your have no problem.